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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."